Propagate

Survival Analysis

Time-to-enactment and time-to-failure analysis for ADMT bills. The regression panel tests whether opposition salience predicts bill failure. Inference-flagged data is labeled and can be excluded from the regression.

Small-N caveat. This analysis covers 7 bills with resolved or ongoing status. With N this small, statistical results are illustrative, not inferential. The visualizations show the data structure; they do not support causal claims. As the dataset grows, these charts will become more analytically meaningful.

Survival Curve (Kaplan-Meier)

Probability that a bill remains "alive" (not failed/vetoed) over time. Enacted bills are treated as censored (survived to enactment).

01361224Months since introduction0%25%50%75%100%50%
Failure event (veto or failure)
Censored (enacted or still active)

Opposition Salience → Bill Failure

Does higher opposition salience predict bill failure? Scatter plot with OLS regression line. Outcome: 1 = failed/vetoed, 0 = enacted/active.

+0.338
Slope (β)
0.648
R² (OLS)
7
N (bills)
12345Opposition Salience Score (1–5)Enacted/ActiveFailed/Vetoed
  • Documented
  • Inferred (INFERENCE)
Interpretation note. Positive slope (β = 0.338) suggests higher opposition salience is associated with higher probability of bill failure. R² = 0.648 — moderate fit. With N = 7, these results are illustrative only.
3 documented records
4 inferred recordsINFERENCE

Bill-Level Data

All bills used in the analysis, with opposition salience scores and inference flags.

BillStatusOpp. ScorePrimary CoalitionData Quality
CO SB 205
Colorado AI Consumer Protections Act
Enacted
4/5
Colorado Technology Association, BSA | The Software Alliance, Chamber of CommerceDOCUMENTED
CO HB 1468
Colorado AI Impact Task Force
Enacted
2/5
Privacy advocacy groups (informal)INFERENCE
CO TBD
Colorado ADMT Replacement Framework
Anticipated
3/5
Civil rights organizations (opposing weakening), Industry groups (supporting weakening)INFERENCE
CA AB 2930
California Automated Decisions Protections Act
Failed
5/5
TechNet, Chamber of Commerce, BSA | The Software Alliance, NetChoice, CTIADOCUMENTED
TX HB 1709
Texas AI Regulation and Reporting Act
Superseded
4/5
Texas Association of Business, TechNet Texas, major tech companiesINFERENCE
TX HB 149
TRAIGA
Enacted
2/5
Civil rights organizations (opposing weakening of protections)INFERENCE
VA HB 2094
Virginia High-Risk AI Act
Vetoed
5/5
Governor Glenn Youngkin (R), Virginia Chamber of Commerce, TechNet, Amazon, MicrosoftDOCUMENTED
IL SB 2203
Illinois Preventing Algorithmic Discrimination Act
Active
3/5
Illinois Chamber of Commerce, Illinois Manufacturers' Association, tech industry coalitionsINFERENCE